Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.016272 0.018426 0.020762 0.023482 0.026566 0.029954 0.033960
2025-08-10 0.012739 0.015671 0.019124 0.023492 0.028878 0.035309 0.043584
2025-08-17 0.010581 0.013773 0.017749 0.023073 0.030027 0.038819 0.050809
2025-08-24 0.009331 0.012721 0.017144 0.023346 0.031841 0.043100 0.059210
2025-08-31 0.008228 0.011674 0.016352 0.023183 0.032929 0.046386 0.066462
2025-09-07 0.007564 0.011124 0.016132 0.023713 0.034939 0.051018 0.075928
2025-09-14 0.006650 0.010101 0.015116 0.022958 0.034967 0.052750 0.081256
2025-09-21 0.006004 0.009398 0.014478 0.022667 0.035602 0.055360 0.088056
2025-09-28 0.005357 0.008621 0.013646 0.021976 0.035521 0.056818 0.093120
2025-10-05 0.005141 0.008498 0.013804 0.022843 0.037955 0.062384 0.105235
2025-10-12 0.004880 0.008272 0.013772 0.023382 0.039878 0.067255 0.116597
2025-10-19 0.004661 0.008093 0.013792 0.023999 0.041964 0.072541 0.129097
2025-10-26 0.004307 0.007658 0.013357 0.023815 0.042688 0.075624 0.138137
2025-11-02 0.004013 0.007304 0.013032 0.023795 0.043699 0.079292 0.148580
2025-11-09 0.003689 0.006863 0.012513 0.023371 0.043925 0.081549 0.156578
2025-11-16 0.003498 0.006650 0.012384 0.023648 0.045462 0.086314 0.169730
2025-11-23 0.003264 0.006336 0.012039 0.023482 0.046132 0.089489 0.180053
2025-11-30 0.003142 0.006222 0.012060 0.024020 0.048206 0.095512 0.196561
2025-12-07 0.002872 0.005798 0.011449 0.023255 0.047619 0.096250 0.202345
2025-12-14 0.002680 0.005513 0.011088 0.022960 0.047949 0.098834 0.212168
2025-12-21 0.002462 0.005156 0.010553 0.022260 0.047378 0.099516 0.217980
2025-12-28 0.002422 0.005166 0.010764 0.023139 0.050209 0.107509 0.240381
2026-01-04 0.002351 0.005103 0.010819 0.023684 0.052365 0.114233 0.260560